The average temperature of the earth increased by 1.10C between the pre-industrial times and 2021. This increase took place in a period of around 200 years. The natural sciences state that the critical threshold is 1.50C. The earth approaches the 1.50C threshold at an increasing pace as the causes of climate change do not reduce their impact.
The probability of reaching the 1.50C threshold within the next 5 years was 0% in 2015. The probability increased to 20% in 2020 and 40% in 2021. In addition, there is a 93% probability that the earth will reach the highest average temperature in any year by 2026 compared to pre-industrial levels. The record of 2016 will have been broken by 2026.
The Paris Agreement, valid as of November 4, 2016, makes it legally binding to limit global warming to 20C, but preferably not to exceed the 1.50C limit. A 2018 report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) describes the disasters that will be encountered once the 1.50C limit is reached.
The IPCC provides with a report an overview of the difference between where greenhouse emissions are predicted to be in 2030 and where they should be to avert the worst impacts of climate change. The 13th of these reports was published recently. The report says that by 2030, 45% of the current emission level must be cut to stay at the 1.50C limit, and 30% to keep it limited to 20C. It is also explained that the warming level will reach 2.80C by the end of this century with current practices and that it can only be kept at 2.4-2.60C with current measures. The studies of Climate Action Tracker also reveal similar data. In other words, humanity is facing a spreading climate catastrophe. There are scientific scenarios in which even the end of the human species takes place.
Some studies express that to prevent reaching the 1.50C limit and bring carbon gas emissions to zero by 2050, global emissions need to be reduced by 5-7% each year. However, carbon emissions increase in the range of 1-2% every year. Governments’ representatives who signed the treaties and appeared at international congresses do not keep their promises.
Natural disasters as a result of climate change have begun to occur faster and more frequently than even the most unfavorable scenarios of naturalists. Disasters are more severe than expected.
In Antarctica, an ice shelf as big as the city of Rome broke off the continent’s main ice mass in March. Heat waves in various parts of the world led to deaths. 1/3 of Pakistan was submerged due to flooding. There is famine and a lack of water supply in Somalia due to drought. In the US, a once-in-a-millennium drought has been going on for 22 years and agricultural production has been inefficient. More examples can be presented. Scientific studies analyze the extent to which natural events are caused by human activities, and it turns out that most of them are caused by human activities.
A climate summit will take place in Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt, on 06-18 November 2022. It is called “Conference of the Parties”. The 27th climate conference, abbreviated as COP in English, will be held this year: COP27. The data above show that the previous 26 meetings did not work at all.
Developed countries must take the lead if measures to address the climate crisis are to be truly taken. They are the main cause of the problem and they are the ones who have the technology to fix the problem. Governments around world have to prevent the investments of fossil-based energy companies with much stricter rules.
The responsibilities of underdeveloped or developing countries should not to be underestimated. The balance between the rich and the poor in every society, as well as the balance of justice between countries, has an important place in the climate crisis. For example, a study conducted in England has striking results. The carbon emission caused by the richest 1% of the country in 1 year is equal to the carbon emissions caused by the lowest 10% income group in 20 years. When it comes to the cost of natural disasters, those who pay the price belong to the bottom 10%. It is possible to observe social inequalities similar to those in England around the world.
The climate crisis is on the agenda every day in all news sources that can be described as the “world press”. In Turkey, the news about the climate crisis does not spread. Studies and discussions of the subject in terms of natural sciences are done. However, there is little or no public awareness of these studies and discussions. Therefore, awareness of the climate crisis and the awareness of the measures to prevent the climate crisis is very low.
It seems that the 1.50C limit will be exceeded, natural disasters will continue to harden, intensify and increase their damage. Famine and water shortage will spread. There will be more deaths due to climate crisis. When the climate crisis intensifies even more, then may some governments start taking action.
Everyone everywhere has to put pressure on governments about climate crisis loudly and persistently. Meaningful and resounding protests must spread around the world. The crisis is a crisis of this moment.
